From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025:
Billion Dollar Disaster Cost to Year-to-Date (updated)
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Economic Data Sources: A Compendium [updated]
When a purported data analyst says something strange, who you gonna call?
“A Recession Is Coming: Yield Curve Indication”
That’s the title of a GJ Collins article on SeekingAlpha today — but it’s not what you think it means…
150 Years of Ten Year Treasury Yield, 100 Years of the 10yr-3mo Spread
Reader Steven Kopits opines on the CBO projection: “by historical standards [1982-2007], we might expect the 10 year rate around 5.0% for the next decade”. I thought it useful to look at the data:
The American People on the Incipient Tariffs
From a fascinating paper by Oli Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber, “The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding“:
CBO on the “Trump 10/60 Tariffs”
That’s my name for Trump’s 10% universal tariffs plan augmented with additional 60% on Chinese-made imports. h/t to Torsten Slok for the CBO letter. I show implied effects on PCE deflator inflation, and GDP relative to January 2025 CBO projection.
“… the turn of the 21st century was a significant inflection point in the US economy. “
A reader sends me a missive with this line, and (among others) a picture of manufacturing employment. I reproduce (on an annual basis) this series back to 1960 in the figure below.
CBO, Biden Administration, IMF and Other Forecasts
CBO released its ten year outlook today (as did the IMF in the WEO January update). Continued but decelerating growth, slightly less optimistic than Administration, noticeably less than the IMF, and FT-Booth survey.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-January
Industrial and manufacturing production (+0.9% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus; +0.6% m/m vs. +0.2% consensus), retail sales (control) surprise on the upside. First, indicators followed by the NBER BCDC:
Administration Forecast vs. FT-Booth, SPF vs. Nowcast
From the Economic Report of the President, 2025, forecast finalized 7 November 2024.